• Thought of the Day

    Thought of the Day

    2000: In order to earn excess returns, one has to anticipate changes in expectations, not react to them.

    William H. Miller III, 2003 annual report to Legg Mason Value Trust shareholders, at:

Today in Financial History

1974: At a seminar sponsored by the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts, Benjamin Graham declares that his valuation formulas enable him to estimate that the fair value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is around 750. The Dow closes that day at 651.91, but it surges 3.4% the next day as word of Graham's analysis spreads–and it rises past 750 just six months later.

Martin S. Fridson, book review of Janet Lowe's The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham, in Financial Analysts Journal, Nov./Dec. 1999, p. 128

1926: The Great Miami Hurricane smashes into Florida with 138-mph winds, killing 243 people and, in a single devastating stroke, ending the speculative Florida land boom.

Frederick Lewis Allen, Only Yesterday: An Informal History of the 1920s (John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1997, reprint of 1931 ed.), p. 212.

1873: Jay Cooke & Co. of Philadelphia, one of the nation's largest investment banks, collapses as a result of failed speculations in railroad stocks–triggering the Panic of 1873. Cooke–and the entire financial world–were taken completely by surprise. Just the night before, he had lavishly entertained Pres. Ulysses S. Grant at the Cooke family mansion in Chelton Hills, PA.

Henry Clews, Twenty -Eight Years in Wall Street (Irving Publishing, New York, 1888), p. 513-514;Charles P. Kindleberger, "The Panic of 1873," in Eugene N. White, ed., Crashes and Panics: The Lessons from History (Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, Ill., 1990), p. 80;Jean Strouse, Morgan: American Financier (Random House, New York, 1999), p. 151