2000: The International Monetary Fund issues its World Economic Outlook report, forecasting that "growth is projected to increase in all major regions of the world, led by the continued strength of the U.S. economy, the robust upswing in Europe, the consolidation of the recovery in Asia and the rebound from last year's slowdown in emerging markets." Just weeks later, most regions of the world are tilting toward recession.

"The Global Slowdown Surprises Economists and Many Companies," The Wall Street Journal, December 21, 2000, p. A1

1974: U.S. Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon predicts that interest rates, then around 8%, will soon fall. The Dow leaps 3.4% on the good news. Over the next seven years, interest rates proceed to double.

Robert J. Shiller, "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?" in Richard H. Thaler, ed., Advances in Behavioral Finance (Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1993), p. 147;Phyllis S. Pierce, ed., The Dow Jones Averages 1885-1980 (DowJones Irwin, Homewood, IL, 1982), not paginated

1931: This message is a light-hearted reminder that his mother is about to leave on vacation. In fact, the Bank, referring to itself by the common nickname "Old Lady," means that it is about to abandon the gold standard — a decision Norman has vehemently opposed for years. He ignores the telegram, the Bank assumes Norman accepts the decision, and the next day the Bank announces that it is suspending payments in gold.

Peter L. Bernstein, The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession (John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2000), p. 315;Barrie A. Wigmore, The Crash and Its Aftermath: A History of Securities Markets in the United States, 1929-1933 (Greenwood Press, Westport, Ct., 1985), p. 301.