• Thought of the Day

    Thought of the Day

    2000: The trouble with market forecasting is not that it is done by unintelligent and unskillful people. Quite to the contrary, the trouble is that it is done by so many really expert people that their efforts constantly neutralize each other, and end up almost exactly in zero.

    –Benjamin Graham, in Janet Lowe, ed., The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham: Selected Writings of the Wall Street Legend (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1999), p. 227.

Today in Financial History

1990: Cisco Systems, Inc. goes public on NASDAQ, selling 2.8 million shares at an initial offering price of $18 per share. By the end of the decade the stock has increased in value by more than 30,000%.

Corporate communications department, Cisco Systems.

1822: Francis Galton is born near Sparkbrook, England. After studying medicine, exploring Africa and obsessively measuring everything he can find, he develops the statistical concept of "reversion to the mean," or the inevitable tendency of above-average results to be followed by below-average results (and vice versa). If investors understood nothing but this one concept, they would make (and keep) a lot more money.

Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (John Wiley & Sons, NY, 1996), pp. 152-168