2000: The reason why even the best predictors of future returns known to mankind do not improve portfolio efficiency is simple: Since 1926 stock prices have risen in two out of three years. For any timing system to succeed, it must therefore supply correct calls 70 percent of the time. Even the proverbial microphone in the chairmans townhouse isnt that good.
William J. Bernstein, The Best Market Indicator Ever, Efficient Frontier, January 1999,
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Some Summer Reading
2026: People are always asking me what I’m reading. Because I think and talk and read about investing all day long, I typically don’t read financial…
Latest articles
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Summon Your Courage and Buy Stocks
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What’s Luck Got to Do with It?
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You’re Not Paranoid. The Market Is Out to Get You.
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Messing Up the Closest Thing to a Sure Thing in the Stock Market
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What Bill Ackman Got Wrong With His Bungled IPO
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A Couple Won the Powerball. Investing It Turned Into Tragedy
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Why Your Fund Manager Can’t Beat Today’s Stock Market
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Hot Funds and the Curse of ‘Self-Inflated Returns’
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Thought of the Day
Money in Art, Money in Culture
Books
Jason is the author of “Your Money and Your Brain,” on the neuroscience of investing, and the editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor,” the classic text that Warren Buffett has described as “by far the best book about investing ever written.”
